NOAA outlook favors wetter late fall for Texas
Texas could see a shift in its weather pattern later this fall as a strengthening El Niño begins to exert more influence on the southern Plains, according to new NOAA forecasts released Thursday.
The Climate Prediction Center’s Sept. 17 outlook gives much of Texas about a 40% to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation during the October-through-December period.
The change may not come immediately.
NOAA said extreme heat and rapidly worsening dryness have affected much of the South during the past six to 10 weeks. Above-normal temperatures are expected across much of Texas through at least Sept. 23, and the National Weather Service in Fort Worth expects North and Central Texas to remain warmer and drier than normal through much of September. Its Sept. 15 extended-range outlook said a transition could begin around the start of October as storm systems become more capable of moving south into the Great Plains, although temperatures could remain above normal during the first half of the month.
NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook calls for drought improvement or removal across much of the South by the end of December, although conditions could worsen in the short term.
The shift is tied partly to a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. NOAA says El Niño is expected to become very strong during the fall and winter.
Strong El Niño events often alter the jet stream and produce a more active southern storm track. NOAA cautions, however, that past El Niño patterns do not guarantee the same outcome in any particular location or season.
The Fort Worth weather office said El Niño’s influence should become more noticeable across North and Central Texas from November onward, with long-range guidance also favoring near- to slightly below-normal temperatures.
For Vernon and Wilbarger County, the outlook points to continued heat and dryness through the remainder of September and possibly into early October, followed by a greater potential for a pattern change later in the fall.
