NWS: Winter Storm Warning in effect beginning Tuesday, into Wednesday
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches.
* WHERE…Portions of southeast and southern Oklahoma and northern Texas including Wilbarger and Hardeman and Foard counties.
* WHEN…From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
In Oklahoma, for the latest road conditions call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7. In Texas, for the latest road conditions call 800 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.
NWS forecast discussion: A strong upper level system moving across the Southern Plains still expected to produce widespread measurable snow and a potential winter storm across parts of our area on Tuesday.
An upper trough currently digging across the southwestern U.S. is expected to start moving into the Southern High Plains by early Tuesday morning. All deterministic models continue to have a good handle both temporally and spatially having this system making a southerly track across the Ark-La-Tex region with the upper low over northern Texas/southern Oklahoma through the eastern half of Oklahoma by the overnight hours. Still no surface boundary/cold front coming through our area with its surface low tracking across southern Texas.
Although very cold Canadian-based air aloft flowing down through the trough, the lack of a colder air mass coming through at the surface is a bit of a challenge with respect to forecasting wintry precipitation verses rain as well as snow accumulations, although the lack of a warm nose due to very cold air and ice being produced in a very saturated dendritic zone would strongly favor snow type. With POPs likely across our southwest by sunrise Tuesday and definite across our entire area by noontime, surface temperatures will likely stay at wet-bulb hovering near freezing allowing wet snow to accumulate at the ground.
Although ground temperatures may be warm, any heavy intensity snow falling will likely accumulate, although more quickly on grassy surfaces than concrete/roadways. Latest HRRR guidance showing a heavy intense band developing across western north Texas through southwest Oklahoma after sunrise, then over a portion of central Oklahoma by the afternoon. As a result, the heaviest snowfall accumulations of 4-6 inches will be possible within the aforementioned heavy band, which is where we have a Winter Storm Watch for heavy wet snow in effect. Of course this may have to be adjusted as the event occurs based on radar trends. We have 1-4 inches of snow accumulations across the remainder of our forecast area which is under a Winter Weather Advisory, with the highest amounts near the watch area.